Stuttgart II 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.38
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
43%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.09
6+ Goals
13%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.52
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.65
X/2
15%
5.81
X/X
13%
5.02
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
16%
3.66
2/X
7%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.5 — our 12% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
38%
-7.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.7pp
43%
Away Win
36%
+7.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-2.2pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stuttgart II EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 39%
-7% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.23/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.65
-19% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -17%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
244 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 20.1
Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stuttgart II
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
30.01.2016 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II AL3
22.08.2015 Stuttgart II Stuttgart II 1-2 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stuttgart II
0-1
AWAY Erzgebirge Aue
62% Ball Possession 38%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
495 Passes 257
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Crosses 12
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Stuttgart II vs Erzgebirge Aue
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Stuttgart II 1-0 away from home.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stuttgart II had 62% of the ball to Erzgebirge Aue's 38%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Stuttgart II and 1.50 for Erzgebirge Aue.

What was the final score of Stuttgart II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Stuttgart II 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue in the Germany - 3rd Division on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stuttgart II vs Erzgebirge Aue?

Before kick-off our model rated an Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Stuttgart II 30%, draw 27%, Erzgebirge Aue 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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