Auckland 1-0 Sydney — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
34%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.18
2-3 Goals
38%
1.97
4-5 Goals
27%
2.72
6+ Goals
13%
6.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.88
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.7
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
9%
6.46
X/2
9%
5.43
X/X
15%
5.69
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
18%
3.05
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+0.8pp
30%
Draw
25%
+5.4pp
34%
Away Win
40%
-6.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.8pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auckland EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sydney EU Bookmakers 45%
+43% / +43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
2.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.23
+26% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +27%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
374 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
Crosses 19.2
Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auckland
1-0
AWAY Sydney
2.54 xG 0.75
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
181 Passes 300
66% Pass Accuracy 75%
33 Box Touches 9
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Auckland vs Sydney
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auckland nicked a narrow win over Sydney 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 30% / 34% — and on the day Auckland made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Auckland had 41% of the ball to Sydney's 59%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 2.54 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auckland's control.

What was the final score of Auckland vs Sydney?

Auckland 1-0 Sydney in the Australia - A-League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auckland vs Sydney?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auckland win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Auckland 36%, draw 30%, Sydney 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auckland) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auckland) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AVUS More Australia - A-League
27 Oct 2024
08:00 Western United vs Western Sydney Wanderers Analysis →