Vila Nova 2-2 Ferroviaria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 27 Oct 2025

📅27/10/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
23%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.59
Over 2.5
43%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.06
No
51%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.36
2-3 Goals
42%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
4.56
6+ Goals
8%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
19%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
48%
-1.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
24%
-0.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.7pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
44%
+4.3pp
51%
BTTS No
56%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Ferroviaria EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.15/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/0.92
-19% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +53%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
324 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
17.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.1
19.5 Crosses 12.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ferroviaria
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.36 xG 1.73
39% Ball Possession 61%
15 Total Shots 16
9 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
267 Passes 465
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 34
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.07.2025 Ferroviaria Ferroviaria 1-3 HT 1-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-2
AWAY Ferroviaria
1.68 xG 2.03
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 2
379 Passes 246
86% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Ferroviaria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Ferroviaria shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vila Nova at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 60% of the ball to Ferroviaria's 40%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.68 to 2.03.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Ferroviaria?

Vila Nova 2-2 Ferroviaria in the Brazil - Serie B on 27/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Ferroviaria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 47%, draw 30%, Ferroviaria 23%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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