Vukovar 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 27 Oct 2025

📅27/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
7.78
Draw
17%
4.95
Away
65%
1.3
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
9%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
25%
X/X
6%
2/1
4%
2/2
32%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
10%
+7.5pp
17%
Draw
17%
-0.2pp
65%
Away Win
73%
-7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vukovar EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 77%
+34% / +34% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -38%
1.26/2.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/0.77
+64% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -19%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
262 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 408 · 82%
13.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
14.5 Crosses 21.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vukovar
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.28 xG 3.38
28% Ball Possession 72%
9 Total Shots 28
3 Shots on Target 11
6 Corners 16
139 Passes 471
69% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 52
11 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 0
08.08.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 HT 1-0 Vukovar Vukovar HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vukovar
1-0
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.64 xG 0.37
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
128 Passes 407
62% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vukovar squeezed past Dinamo Zagreb 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Dinamo Zagreb carried 65% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Vukovar had 30% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 70%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.64 to 0.37 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vukovar's control.

What was the final score of Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Vukovar 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 27/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vukovar vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Vukovar 18%, draw 17%, Dinamo Zagreb 65%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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