Derby County 1-2 Swansea City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 27 Nov 2024

Derby County
1-2 HT 0-2
Swansea City
📅27/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Derby County vs Swansea City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.6
Over 2.5
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.53
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
4.8
6+ Goals
10%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.7
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.5
X/1
13%
4.98
X/2
11%
5.57
X/X
9%
4.03
2/1
9%
33.0
2/2
20%
4.31
2/X
9%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.4pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+3.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Swansea City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Swansea City EU Bookmakers 37%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
1.21/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.24
-7% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -3%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
320 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
18.7 Crosses 17.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Derby County vs Swansea City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derby County
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Swansea City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 0.87
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
309 Passes 430
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.04.2022 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 2-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
02.10.2021 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
01.05.2021 Swansea City Swansea City 2-1 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
16.12.2020 Derby County Derby County 2-0 HT 2-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL
08.02.2020 Swansea City Swansea City 2-3 HT 0-1 Derby County Derby County İNCL
10.08.2019 Derby County Derby County 0-0 HT 0-0 Swansea City Swansea City İNCL

Derby County 1-2 Swansea City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derby County
1-2
AWAY Swansea City
3.46 xG 0.24
43% Ball Possession 57%
18 Total Shots 3
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
274 Passes 403
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
31 Box Touches 4
36 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Swansea City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Swansea City nicked a narrow win over Derby County 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Swansea City found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Derby County had 43% of the ball to Swansea City's 57%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 3.46 to 0.24 — on chances, Derby County could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Derby County and 1.00 for Swansea City.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Swansea City?

Derby County 1-2 Swansea City in the England - Championship on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Swansea City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derby County win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Derby County 38%, draw 26%, Swansea City 37%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Derby County) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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