Padova Calcio 1-2 Caldiero Terme — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Pro League Cup, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.3
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.65
6+ Goals
10%
14.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.3 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
64%
-9.7pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.0pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-2.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.7pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldiero Terme EU Bookmakers 17%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
376 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 226 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Caldiero Terme
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 6
01.09.2024 Caldiero Terme 0-2 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
1-2
AWAY Caldiero Terme
59% Ball Possession 41%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Caldiero Terme
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldiero Terme edged past Padova Calcio 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Padova Calcio at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 59% of the ball to Caldiero Terme's 41%, shots finished 11-10.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Caldiero Terme?

Padova Calcio 1-2 Caldiero Terme in the Italy - Pro League Cup on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Caldiero Terme?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 54%, draw 24%, Caldiero Terme 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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