Arouca 1-1 Gil Vicente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Dec 2024

Arouca
1-1 HT 0-0
Gil Vicente
📅27/12/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arouca vs Gil Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.12
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.56
Over 2.5
38%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.77
6+ Goals
8%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.18
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.85
X/1
10%
4.62
X/2
14%
6.72
X/X
13%
3.76
2/1
6%
32.0
2/2
13%
5.43
2/X
8%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
43%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.2pp
32%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
62%
Under 2.5
60%
+1.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
40%
-1.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.6pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Gil Vicente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gil Vicente EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
1.35/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.34
-2% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -3%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
353 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
18.0 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Arouca vs Gil Vicente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Gil Vicente
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
327 Passes 365
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.04.2024 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 2-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
16.12.2023 Arouca Arouca 3-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
05.02.2023 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-1 HT 1-1 Arouca Arouca POR
08.11.2022 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente 1-4 HT 1-2 Arouca Arouca POK
15.08.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 1-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR
02.04.2022 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 0-0 Gil Vicente Gil Vicente POR

Arouca 1-1 Gil Vicente — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
1-1
AWAY Gil Vicente
0.50 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
337 Passes 378
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Gil Vicente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca and Gil Vicente couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Arouca had 48% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 52%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.50 to 0.96.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Arouca and 0.83 for Gil Vicente.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Gil Vicente?

Arouca 1-1 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Gil Vicente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Arouca 39%, draw 29%, Gil Vicente 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Arouca), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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