St. Gallen 1-4 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.43
Over 2.5
58%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.5
No
41%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.23
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
30%
2.65
6+ Goals
13%
6.56
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.21
1/2
10%
36.5
1/X
10%
13.3
X/1
19%
4.43
X/2
10%
9.08
X/X
7%
6.03
2/1
9%
20.15
2/2
10%
5.92
2/X
9%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-8.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
62%
-3.4pp
41%
BTTS No
38%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Gallen EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +6%
1.84/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.58
+4% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
328 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
29.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
19.0 Crosses 15.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Gallen
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Lugano
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.43 xG 1.56
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
255 Passes 296
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
29.07.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 0-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
26.04.2023 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-2 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
10.04.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-1 HT 1-0 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
16.10.2022 St. Gallen St. Gallen 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
28.08.2022 Lugano Lugano 2-3 HT 1-2 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSV
15.05.2022 Lugano Lugano 4-1 HT 2-1 St. Gallen St. Gallen İSVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Gallen
1-4
AWAY Lugano
1.00 xG 2.41
34% Ball Possession 66%
8 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
180 Passes 442
69% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Gallen vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano ran out comfortable winners over St. Gallen 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was St. Gallen at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, St. Gallen had 34% of the ball to Lugano's 66%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 1.00 to 2.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for St. Gallen and 1.83 for Lugano.

What was the final score of St. Gallen vs Lugano?

St. Gallen 1-4 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Gallen vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Gallen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split St. Gallen 45%, draw 26%, Lugano 29%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (St. Gallen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (St. Gallen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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