Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 Sumqayıt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Araz Nahçıvan EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 30%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +34%
1.00/0.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.82
-20% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +60%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
355 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Araz Nahçıvan
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Sumqayıt
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
4 Corners 4
04.11.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-0 HT 1-0 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan AZERS
25.08.2023 Araz Nahçıvan Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Araz Nahçıvan vs Sumqayıt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Araz Nahçıvan and Sumqayıt shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Araz Nahçıvan at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sumqayıt led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Araz Nahçıvan and 1.50 for Sumqayıt.

What was the final score of Araz Nahçıvan vs Sumqayıt?

Araz Nahçıvan 1-1 Sumqayıt in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Araz Nahçıvan vs Sumqayıt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Araz Nahçıvan win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Araz Nahçıvan 43%, draw 29%, Sumqayıt 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Araz Nahçıvan) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
28 Jan 2024
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