Neftçi PFK 3-1 Qabala — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.78
Over 2.5
39%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.03
No
61%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
61%
-7.1pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.5pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.8pp
61%
BTTS No
55%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Qabala EU Bookmakers 20%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -1%
2.11/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.92
+4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -19%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
294 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Qabala
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
9 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
05.11.2023 Qabala Qabala 0-2 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
27.08.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
03.06.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 0-1 HT 0-0 Qabala Qabala AZERK
14.04.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 0-2 Qabala Qabala AZERS
10.02.2023 Qabala Qabala 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
12.11.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Qabala Qabala AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Qabala
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK beat Qabala 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.50 for Qabala.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Qabala?

Neftçi PFK 3-1 Qabala in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Qabala?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 54%, draw 27%, Qabala 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
28 Jan 2024
14:00 Araz Nahçıvan vs Sumqayıt Analysis →