Real Noroeste 1-0 Estrela Do Norte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Capixaba, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
Over Pick
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Total Goals
0-1
21%
2-3
44%
4-5
26%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
37%
+7.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.7pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Noroeste The Market 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela Do Norte The Market 40%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.20/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/0.85
-23% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +70%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
305 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Real Noroeste
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Estrela Do Norte
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
11.03.2023 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 3-2 HT 1-0 Estrela Do Norte BRCAP
26.03.2022 Estrela Do Norte 1-1 HT 1-0 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste BRCAP
06.05.2021 Estrela Do Norte 1-2 HT 1-2 Real Noroeste Real Noroeste BRCAP
POST-MATCH Real Noroeste vs Estrela Do Norte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Noroeste edged past Estrela Do Norte 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Noroeste as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Real Noroeste had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Real Noroeste and 1.33 for Estrela Do Norte.

What was the final score of Real Noroeste vs Estrela Do Norte?

Real Noroeste 1-0 Estrela Do Norte in the Brazil - Capixaba on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Noroeste vs Estrela Do Norte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Noroeste win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Real Noroeste 44%, draw 25%, Estrela Do Norte 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Noroeste) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Noroeste) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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