HNK Gorica 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.69
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
19.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.0pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.2pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.26/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.18
+30% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +35%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
285 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 76%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
17.2 Crosses 20.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.59 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
298 Passes 328
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
01.05.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.02.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
22.10.2022 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
13.08.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-2 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
07.05.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 3-3 HT 2-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
1-2
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
0.17 xG 1.88
43% Ball Possession 57%
5 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 4
224 Passes 365
64% Pass Accuracy 78%
9 Box Touches 26
16 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiva Zagreb nicked a narrow win over HNK Gorica 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Lokomotiva Zagreb made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 43% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 57%, shots finished 5-20, expected goals 0.17 to 1.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lokomotiva Zagreb's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HNK Gorica had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.67 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

HNK Gorica 1-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 36%, draw 29%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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