Hajduk Split 1-2 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
21%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.68
Over 2.5
44%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.67
2-3 Goals
46%
1.71
4-5 Goals
16%
4.05
6+ Goals
6%
19.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 32% vs market 30.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
17%
X/2
10%
X/X
17%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
-0.3pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.9pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.3pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +2%
1.56/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.25
+37% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -4%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 73%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
19.1 Crosses 19.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Rijeka
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.21 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
340 Passes 257
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
30.07.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
16.04.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
05.02.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
02.10.2022 Rijeka Rijeka 0-1 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
14.09.2022 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
1-2
AWAY Rijeka
0.41 xG 1.19
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
333 Passes 211
75% Pass Accuracy 68%
24 Box Touches 10
11 Crosses 9
6 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka nicked a narrow win over Hajduk Split 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 59% of the ball to Rijeka's 41%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.41 to 1.19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hajduk Split and 0.83 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Rijeka?

Hajduk Split 1-2 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 50%, draw 29%, Rijeka 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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