South China 2-4 Citizen AA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
25%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.46
No
45%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
12%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
4%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
+0.4pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
29%
-4.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS No
36%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South China EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Citizen AA EU Bookmakers 32%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.78/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/2.01
-54% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -26%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
356 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South China
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Citizen AA
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.01.2024 Citizen AA Citizen AA 2-2 HT 1-0 South China South China HK2
19.02.2023 South China South China 1-2 HT 1-1 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
13.11.2022 Citizen AA Citizen AA 1-1 HT 0-1 South China South China HK2
12.12.2021 South China South China 4-0 HT 1-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK2
01.03.2015 South China South China 1-0 HT 1-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HONFK
11.05.2014 South China South China 3-2 HT 2-0 Citizen AA Citizen AA HK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME South China
2-4
AWAY Citizen AA
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH South China vs Citizen AA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Citizen AA got the better of South China 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was South China at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, South China had 56% of the ball to Citizen AA's 44%, shots finished 7-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, South China had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for South China and 1.17 for Citizen AA.

What was the final score of South China vs Citizen AA?

South China 2-4 Citizen AA in the Hong Kong - HKFA 1st Division on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South China vs Citizen AA?

Before kick-off our model rated a South China win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split South China 47%, draw 28%, Citizen AA 24%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South China) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South China) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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