Independiente Medellin 1-0 Deportivo Pereira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Jan 2024

📅28/01/2024 · 🕒04:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.64
Over 2.5
41%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.99
No
60%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
57%
+2.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
43%
-2.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
46%
-6.0pp
60%
BTTS No
54%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pereira EU Bookmakers 26%
+7% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -18%
1.45/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.08
+14% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -4%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
18.4 Crosses 12.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Pereira
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.21 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
325 Passes 303
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
23.10.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
07.05.2023 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 3-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
08.12.2022 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
05.12.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
23.09.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira KOL
27.03.2022 Deportivo Pereira Deportivo Pereira 1-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Pereira
0.39 xG 0.45
58% Ball Possession 42%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
341 Passes 221
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past Deportivo Pereira 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 58% of the ball to Deportivo Pereira's 42%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.39 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Independiente Medellin and 1.00 for Deportivo Pereira.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Deportivo Pereira in the Colombia - Primera on 28/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Pereira 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
28 Jan 2024
00:00 Santa Fe vs Envigado Analysis →
02:10 Jaguares De Cordoba vs La Equidad Analysis →