Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 28 Jan 2026

Benfica
4 - 2 HT 2 - 1
Real Madrid
📅28/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Champions League – 2025/2026

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.69
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
54%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
2.51
Over Pick
66%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.5
No
39%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
15%
5.25
2-3
43%
1.99
4-5
31%
2.64
6+
11%
6.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.19
1/2
4%
19.75
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
9%
9.16
X/2
16%
4.73
X/X
12%
6.38
2/1
2%
35.0
2/2
34%
2.25
2/X
5%
13.4
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Benfica v Real Madrid — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Benfica The Market 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid The Market 57%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.48 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 2.24
1.70 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.12
Great Attack Strength Strong
Strong Defense Strength Bad
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
328 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 507 · 86%
26 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2

Benfica vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Real Madrid
5.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
27.07.2012 Benfica Benfica 5-2 HT 2-2 Real Madrid Real Madrid HAZ

Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
4 - 2
AWAY Real Madrid
3.01 xG 1.50
33% Ball Possession 67%
22 Total Shots 16
12 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
227 Passes 553
77% Pass Accuracy 91%
47 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 5
REVIEW Benfica vs Real Madrid
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Benfica beat Real Madrid 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. A 6-goal game — the defences never settled.

Our pre-match lean was Real Madrid at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals call finished the job: over 2.5 goals (66%), both teams to score (61%) landed.

On the day, Real Madrid saw more of the ball, 67% to 33%, shots finished 22-16, expected goals 3.01 to 1.50.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Result & Final Score

Benfica 4 - 2 Real Madrid in the Champions League on 28/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Benfica vs Real Madrid Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Benfica 24%, draw 22%, Real Madrid 54%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Real Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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