AS Marsa 1-0 Gabes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Tunisia - 1st Division, 28 Jan 2026

📅28/01/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.47
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
11%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.67
No
56%
1.41
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.22
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
18%
5.06
6+ Goals
8%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
15%
2/2
3%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
64%
-1.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.6pp
11%
Away Win
12%
-1.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
33%
+10.5pp
56%
BTTS No
67%
-10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AS Marsa EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Gabes EU Bookmakers 15%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -5%
1.03/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/1.97
-34% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -23%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 66%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AS Marsa
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Gabes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
64% Ball Possession 36%
18 Total Shots 7
10 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
22.08.2025 Gabes Gabes 2-1 HT 1-0 AS Marsa AS Marsa TUN1
30.04.2023 AS Marsa AS Marsa 2-0 HT 0-0 Gabes Gabes TUN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AS Marsa
1-0
AWAY Gabes
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
POST-MATCH AS Marsa vs Gabes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AS Marsa squeezed past Gabes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AS Marsa as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, AS Marsa had 60% of the ball to Gabes's 40%, shots finished 15-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AS Marsa and 1.00 for Gabes.

What was the final score of AS Marsa vs Gabes?

AS Marsa 1-0 Gabes in the Tunisia - 1st Division on 28/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AS Marsa vs Gabes?

Before kick-off our model rated a AS Marsa win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split AS Marsa 63%, draw 26%, Gabes 11%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AS Marsa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AS Marsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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