Neftçi PFK 1-0 Kapaz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 28 Feb 2025

📅28/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.74
Over 2.5
48%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.06
No
54%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-2.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Kapaz EU Bookmakers 20%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.22/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.00/2.00
-9% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Kapaz
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
05.02.2025 Kapaz Kapaz 0-2 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
15.12.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-1 HT 2-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
04.10.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 4-3 HT 3-2 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
09.03.2024 Kapaz Kapaz 3-3 HT 1-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
24.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 1-0 Kapaz Kapaz AZERS
06.08.2023 Kapaz Kapaz 1-0 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK edged past Kapaz 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.50 for Kapaz.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Neftçi PFK 1-0 Kapaz in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 28/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Kapaz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 57%, draw 24%, Kapaz 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AZERK More Azerbaijan - Cup
28 Feb 2025
15:00 Zira vs Araz Nahçıvan Analysis →