Leones del Norte 1-1 Libertad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 28 Feb 2026

📅28/02/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
29%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
Over 2.5
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.13
No
53%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.8pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
43%
+4.3pp
53%
BTTS No
57%
-4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones del Norte EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Libertad EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -10%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
290 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
Crosses 14.4
Yellow Cards 2.1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leones del Norte
1-1
AWAY Libertad
1.83 xG 1.24
39% Ball Possession 61%
18 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
194 Passes 329
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Leones del Norte vs Libertad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones del Norte and Libertad shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (40% / 31% / 29%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Leones del Norte had 39% of the ball to Libertad's 61%, shots finished 18-15, expected goals 1.83 to 1.24.

What was the final score of Leones del Norte vs Libertad?

Leones del Norte 1-1 Libertad in the Ecuador - Premier on 28/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones del Norte vs Libertad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones del Norte win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Leones del Norte 40%, draw 31%, Libertad 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Leones del Norte), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leones del Norte) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EKV1 More Ecuador - Premier
28 Feb 2026
03:30 Tecnico Universitario vs Orense Analysis →