Holstebro BK 1-0 Naesby — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.23
Over 2.5
42%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.5
No
52%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
9%
X/2
22%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.9pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
41%
+16.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
59%
-16.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
62%
-14.3pp
52%
BTTS No
38%
+14.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstebro BK EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Naesby EU Bookmakers 48%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.06/2.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.40/0.56
-18% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstebro BK
1W-0D-4L
AWAY Naesby
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 10
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 0
30.09.2023 Naesby Naesby 1-2 HT 1-1 Holstebro BK Holstebro BK DAN3
12.03.2023 Holstebro BK Holstebro BK 1-2 HT 0-1 Naesby Naesby DAN3
03.09.2022 Naesby Naesby 2-0 HT 0-0 Holstebro BK Holstebro BK DAN3
01.05.2021 Naesby Naesby 1-0 HT 1-0 Holstebro BK Holstebro BK DAN2
08.11.2020 Holstebro BK Holstebro BK 1-5 HT 1-1 Naesby Naesby DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstebro BK
1-0
AWAY Naesby
46% Ball Possession 54%
19 Total Shots 8
9 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Holstebro BK vs Naesby
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holstebro BK edged past Naesby 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 26% / 39% — and on the day Holstebro BK made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Holstebro BK had 46% of the ball to Naesby's 54%, shots finished 19-8.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Naesby led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Holstebro BK and 2.20 for Naesby.

What was the final score of Holstebro BK vs Naesby?

Holstebro BK 1-0 Naesby in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstebro BK vs Naesby?

Before kick-off our model rated an Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Holstebro BK 35%, draw 26%, Naesby 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Naesby) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Naesby) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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