Leones Negros Udeg 2-4 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 28 Mar 2024

📅28/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
Over 2.5
41%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.95
No
58%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
48%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.2pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.7pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 19%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +11%
2.22/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.10
+26% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -23%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
1W-1D-1L
AWAY CA La Paz
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
23.08.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 3-0 HT 2-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
24.02.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 HT 0-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
14.07.2022 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-2 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA La Paz got the better of Leones Negros Udeg 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Leones Negros Udeg at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 2.33 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz?

Leones Negros Udeg 2-4 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 28/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 53%, draw 26%, CA La Paz 22%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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