Once Caldas 1-0 Llaneros — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
28%
3.72
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.71
Over 2.5
41%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+4.3pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
55%
+4.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
45%
-4.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-2.2pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Llaneros EU Bookmakers 19%
-15% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.40/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.55
-41% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +116% / -38%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
357 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.3
25.5 Crosses 18.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 1.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Llaneros
1.21 xG 0.31
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
315 Passes 330
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
21 Box Touches 6
20 Crosses 16
7 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Llaneros
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas squeezed past Llaneros 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Once Caldas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Once Caldas had 48% of the ball to Llaneros's 52%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.21 to 0.31.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Llaneros?

Once Caldas 1-0 Llaneros in the Colombia - Primera on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Llaneros?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 51%, draw 28%, Llaneros 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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