Krylya Sovetov 5-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Mar 2025

Krylya Sovetov
5-1 HT 4-0
Lokomotiv Moscow
📅28/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
13.8
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 26% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
5.84
1/2
8%
24.65
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
8%
7.81
X/2
17%
4.71
X/X
15%
4.83
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
23%
2.68
2/X
5%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
27%
-0.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.4pp
48%
Away Win
47%
+1.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.5pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Krylya Sovetov v Lokomotiv Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Krylya Sovetov EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 51%
-13% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +11%
1.15/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.88/1.33
-37% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -10%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
295 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 78%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
16.9 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.2

Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Krylya Sovetov
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
2.08 xG 1.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
288 Passes 325
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
27 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-0 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
25.11.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 3-3 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
12.08.2023 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
14.05.2023 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS
13.08.2022 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 1-1 HT 0-0 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov RUS
21.05.2022 Krylya Sovetov Krylya Sovetov 0-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUS

Krylya Sovetov 5-1 Lokomotiv Moscow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Krylya Sovetov
5-1
AWAY Lokomotiv Moscow
2.65 xG 0.80
39% Ball Possession 61%
18 Total Shots 13
13 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
265 Passes 474
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
29 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Krylya Sovetov ran out comfortable winners over Lokomotiv Moscow 5-1. Half-time: 4-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Moscow at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Krylya Sovetov had 39% of the ball to Lokomotiv Moscow's 61%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 2.65 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Moscow led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Krylya Sovetov and 1.33 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

What was the final score of Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Krylya Sovetov 5-1 Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Krylya Sovetov vs Lokomotiv Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Krylya Sovetov 26%, draw 26%, Lokomotiv Moscow 48%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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