Naesby 4-1 Horsholm-Usserod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 3rd Division, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.02
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
31%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
Over 2.5
67%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
67%
1.39
No
33%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
17%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.1pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.4pp
31%
Away Win
30%
+0.3pp
67%
BTTS Yes
68%
-0.7pp
33%
BTTS No
32%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naesby EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Horsholm-Usserod EU Bookmakers 34%
+8% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
2.02/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/2.00
+13% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naesby
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Horsholm-Usserod
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
61% Ball Possession 39%
8 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
30.08.2025 Horsholm-Usserod 1-1 HT 1-0 Naesby Naesby DAN3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naesby
4-1
AWAY Horsholm-Usserod
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naesby ran out comfortable winners over Horsholm-Usserod 4-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Naesby as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (67%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Naesby had 61% of the ball to Horsholm-Usserod's 39%, shots finished 15-9.

What was the final score of Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod?

Naesby 4-1 Horsholm-Usserod in the Denmark - 3rd Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naesby vs Horsholm-Usserod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naesby win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Naesby 48%, draw 22%, Horsholm-Usserod 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naesby), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Naesby) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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