Kwara United 1-0 Nasarawa United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.96
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
17%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
72%
Over 2.5
28%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
30%
2.4
No
70%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
46%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
12%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
47%
+8.4pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.5pp
17%
Away Win
23%
-6.0pp
30%
BTTS Yes
38%
-7.1pp
70%
BTTS No
62%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kwara United EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Nasarawa United EU Bookmakers 26%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
0.81/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.50
-33% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +136% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kwara United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Nasarawa United
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2025 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 1-1 HT 1-1 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
26.03.2025 Kwara United Kwara United 1-0 HT 0-0 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United NIJ
10.11.2024 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 0-1 HT 0-1 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
02.03.2022 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 1-1 HT 0-1 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
09.05.2021 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United 2-1 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
04.04.2021 Kwara United Kwara United 2-0 HT 0-0 Nasarawa United Nasarawa United NIJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kwara United
1-0
AWAY Nasarawa United
64% Ball Possession 36%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kwara United vs Nasarawa United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kwara United nicked a narrow win over Nasarawa United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kwara United as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (72%), no to both teams scoring (70%) came in.

On the day, Kwara United had 64% of the ball to Nasarawa United's 36%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kwara United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Kwara United and 0.67 for Nasarawa United.

What was the final score of Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

Kwara United 1-0 Nasarawa United in the Nigeria NPFL on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Nasarawa United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 55%, draw 28%, Nasarawa United 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kwara United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kwara United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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