Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

Tottenham
2-3 HT 0-3
Arsenal
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Tottenham vs Arsenal Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
43%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
11%
7.11
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.75
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.3
1/X
8%
14.1
X/1
11%
8.66
X/2
18%
4.41
X/X
11%
6.09
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.27
2/X
8%
13.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.3 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
43%
Away Win
52%
-9.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tottenham v Arsenal — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tottenham EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal EU Bookmakers 56%
+9% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +5%
1.35/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/0.94
+14% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +42%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
301 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 476 · 84%
25.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
18.0 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.6

Tottenham vs Arsenal Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tottenham
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Arsenal
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.64 xG 1.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
394 Passes 389
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Arsenal Arsenal 2-2 HT 1-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
15.01.2023 Tottenham Tottenham 0-2 HT 0-2 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
01.10.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 1-1 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
12.05.2022 Tottenham Tottenham 3-0 HT 2-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
26.09.2021 Arsenal Arsenal 3-1 HT 3-0 Tottenham Tottenham İNP
08.08.2021 Tottenham Tottenham 1-0 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal HAZ

Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tottenham
2-3
AWAY Arsenal
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
505 Passes 280
90% Pass Accuracy 81%
POST-MATCH Tottenham vs Arsenal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal nicked a narrow win over Tottenham 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arsenal as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Tottenham had 62% of the ball to Arsenal's 38%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tottenham and 1.67 for Arsenal.

What was the final score of Tottenham vs Arsenal?

Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal in the England - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tottenham vs Arsenal?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Tottenham 30%, draw 27%, Arsenal 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arsenal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
28 Apr 2024
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