PSG (K) 1-2 Lyon (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 28 Apr 2024

PSG (K)
1-2 HT 1-1
Lyon (K)
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2023/2024

PSG (K) vs Lyon (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
3.5
Draw
21%
3.54
Away
58%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.88
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.17
6+ Goals
7%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.88 — our 30% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
10%
1/X
3%
X/1
4%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
29%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
25%
-4.2pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
58%
Away Win
50%
+7.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.1pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG (K) v Lyon (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG (K) EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 55%
-43% / -43% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.04/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/0.31
-86% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / –
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 402 · 82%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.4 Crosses 13.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.0

PSG (K) vs Lyon (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG (K)
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Lyon (K)
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.57 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
307 Passes 266
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
20.04.2024 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 3-2 HT 0-1 PSG (K) PSG (K) ŞMP-K
11.02.2024 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG (K) PSG (K) FRK1
30.04.2022 PSG (K) PSG (K) 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
24.04.2022 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 3-2 HT 2-1 PSG (K) PSG (K) ŞMP-K
18.04.2021 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 1-2 HT 1-1 PSG (K) PSG (K) ŞMP-K
24.03.2021 PSG (K) PSG (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K

PSG (K) 1-2 Lyon (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG (K)
1-2
AWAY Lyon (K)
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 7
POST-MATCH PSG (K) vs Lyon (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) edged past PSG (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, PSG (K) had 60% of the ball to Lyon (K)'s 40%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for PSG (K) and 1.83 for Lyon (K).

What was the final score of PSG (K) vs Lyon (K)?

PSG (K) 1-2 Lyon (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG (K) vs Lyon (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split PSG (K) 21%, draw 21%, Lyon (K) 58%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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