Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 Ingolstadt — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 28 Apr 2024

Rot-Weiss Essen
4-0 HT 3-0
Ingolstadt
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.64
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.76
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.83
6+ Goals
11%
7.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.84
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.0
X/1
14%
5.01
X/2
7%
6.77
X/X
16%
5.65
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
18%
4.31
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
45%
-8.0pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.9pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.4pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rot-Weiss Essen v Ingolstadt — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Ingolstadt EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -15%
1.60/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.47
+0% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
– Crosses 19.7
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0

Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Ingolstadt
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 2-1 HT 2-1 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
25.02.2023 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt 1-1 HT 0-0 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen AL3
20.08.2022 Rot-Weiss Essen Rot-Weiss Essen 2-2 HT 2-0 Ingolstadt Ingolstadt AL3

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 Ingolstadt — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rot-Weiss Essen
4-0
AWAY Ingolstadt
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rot-Weiss Essen ran out comfortable winners over Ingolstadt 4-0. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Rot-Weiss Essen found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Rot-Weiss Essen had 51% of the ball to Ingolstadt's 49%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ingolstadt led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.67 for Ingolstadt.

What was the final score of Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt?

Rot-Weiss Essen 4-0 Ingolstadt in the Germany - 3rd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rot-Weiss Essen vs Ingolstadt?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rot-Weiss Essen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Rot-Weiss Essen 37%, draw 30%, Ingolstadt 33%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rot-Weiss Essen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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