Neftçi PFK 3-0 Turan Tovuz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.05
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.78
Over 2.5
42%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
12%
X/2
17%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
45%
-4.4pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.3pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Turan Tovuz EU Bookmakers 31%
+12% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.47/0.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.67/0.85
+18% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +55%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Turan Tovuz
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
24.02.2024 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
10.12.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-2 HT 1-1 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
30.09.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
07.05.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 4-0 HT 3-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
19.04.2023 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz 1-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERK
05.03.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 4-0 HT 2-0 Turan Tovuz Turan Tovuz AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Turan Tovuz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK cruised past Turan Tovuz 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 31% — and on the day Neftçi PFK made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neftçi PFK and 1.33 for Turan Tovuz.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Turan Tovuz?

Neftçi PFK 3-0 Turan Tovuz in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Turan Tovuz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 40%, draw 28%, Turan Tovuz 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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