Al Najma 2-1 Al Ahli Manama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.57
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
39%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
2.03
Over 2.5
42%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.61
No
54%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.82
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.21
6+ Goals
11%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 31% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
13%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
35%
-3.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.4pp
39%
Away Win
39%
+0.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
45%
+12.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
55%
-12.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.3pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Najma EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahli Manama EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
2.06/2.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.82
+95% / -49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
341 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Najma
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Al Ahli Manama
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
25.11.2023 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
04.11.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
26.03.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAHK
20.01.2022 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 2-1 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
25.08.2021 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 1-1 HT 1-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
08.05.2021 Al Ahli Manama Al Ahli Manama 3-1 HT 1-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Najma
2-1
AWAY Al Ahli Manama
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Najma squeezed past Al Ahli Manama 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (32% / 29% / 39%) promised a tight game; Al Najma found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Najma had 39% of the ball to Al Ahli Manama's 61%, shots finished 9-19.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Manama led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Al Najma and 1.83 for Al Ahli Manama.

What was the final score of Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama?

Al Najma 2-1 Al Ahli Manama in the Bahrain - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Najma vs Al Ahli Manama?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahli Manama win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Al Najma 32%, draw 29%, Al Ahli Manama 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahli Manama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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