Slavia Mozyr 3-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.96
No
51%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.76
6+ Goals
12%
16.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 27% vs market 26.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
5%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.4pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.2pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slavia Mozyr EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk EU Bookmakers 21%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.33/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.99
+23% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -28%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
448 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slavia Mozyr
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 5
22.10.2022 Slavia Mozyr Slavia Mozyr 1-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk BLR
26.06.2022 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 3-2 HT 2-1 Slavia Mozyr Slavia Mozyr BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slavia Mozyr
3-0
AWAY Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slavia Mozyr ran out comfortable winners over Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Slavia Mozyr as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Slavia Mozyr had 54% of the ball to Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk's 46%, shots finished 18-11.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Slavia Mozyr and 2.00 for Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk.

What was the final score of Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Slavia Mozyr 3-0 Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slavia Mozyr vs Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slavia Mozyr win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Slavia Mozyr 49%, draw 27%, Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk 24%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Slavia Mozyr), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Slavia Mozyr) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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