Coritiba 1-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.64
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.62
Over 2.5
36%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.16
No
64%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.59
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.54
6+ Goals
7%
24.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.59 — our 37% vs market 32.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
57%
-8.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.8pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.3pp
64%
Under 2.5
58%
+6.5pp
36%
Over 2.5
42%
-6.5pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-6.2pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
1.62/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.50
+6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
23.2 Crosses 17.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Brusque
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.93 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
350 Passes 395
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 4-0 HT 2-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
04.08.2021 Brusque Brusque 0-0 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-0
AWAY Brusque
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
338 Passes 379
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba squeezed past Brusque 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Coritiba had 48% of the ball to Brusque's 52%, shots finished 9-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Coritiba and 0.00 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Brusque?

Coritiba 1-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 49%, draw 29%, Brusque 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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