IFK Mariehamn 0-1 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.5
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
48%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.65
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.31
6+ Goals
9%
11.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
6.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
1/X
10%
13.7
X/1
13%
8.39
X/2
18%
4.37
X/X
9%
4.88
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.44
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
25%
+2.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.0pp
48%
Away Win
49%
-1.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 54%
-15% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +16%
0.80/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.80
-22% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / +10%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.2 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME IFK Mariehamn
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.04 xG 1.28
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
339 Passes 405
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.09.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-1 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
15.07.2023 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 0-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
05.04.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-1 HT 1-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
02.10.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-3 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
21.08.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 1-5 HT 1-4 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
15.05.2022 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME IFK Mariehamn
0-1
AWAY Ilves Tampere
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
335 Passes 430
83% Pass Accuracy 86%
POST-MATCH IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, IFK Mariehamn had 46% of the ball to Ilves Tampere's 54%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for IFK Mariehamn and 1.83 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere?

IFK Mariehamn 0-1 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for IFK Mariehamn vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split IFK Mariehamn 28%, draw 25%, Ilves Tampere 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✗ BTTS Yes
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