Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
11%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.6pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.4pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.7pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportes Tolima EU Bookmakers 33%
+2% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +11%
1.15/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.17
-3% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +31%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 75%
16.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.4
16.4 Crosses 11.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Nacional
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Deportes Tolima
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 0.98
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
329 Passes 317
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.11.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-3 HT 0-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
24.07.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
27.06.2022 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 2-1 HT 2-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
23.06.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
04.02.2022 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
25.07.2021 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Nacional
3-1
AWAY Deportes Tolima
57% Ball Possession 43%
25 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
447 Passes 331
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional saw off Deportes Tolima 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Atletico Nacional had 57% of the ball to Deportes Tolima's 43%, shots finished 25-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportes Tolima led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atletico Nacional and 1.50 for Deportes Tolima.

What was the final score of Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

Atletico Nacional 3-1 Deportes Tolima in the Colombia - Primera on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Nacional 39%, draw 27%, Deportes Tolima 34%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Nacional) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Nacional) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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