FK Partizan 1-2 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.91
Over 2.5
55%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.66
No
45%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
20%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.3pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.4pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.6pp
45%
Under 2.5
48%
-3.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
52%
+3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.1pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Partizan EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +10%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +67% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
Crosses 15.6
Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Partizan
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Backa Topola
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.36 xG 1.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
354 Passes 342
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
25.11.2023 FK Partizan FK Partizan 0-4 HT 0-3 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
29.07.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 3-3 HT 2-2 FK Partizan FK Partizan SIRP
01.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-3 HT 1-1 FK Partizan FK Partizan SIRP
06.11.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-3 HT 1-1 FK Partizan FK Partizan SIRP
23.07.2022 FK Partizan FK Partizan 0-0 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
27.04.2022 FK Partizan FK Partizan 4-1 HT 2-1 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
POST-MATCH FK Partizan vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola nicked a narrow win over FK Partizan 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FK Partizan at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Partizan had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for FK Partizan and 1.83 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of FK Partizan vs Backa Topola?

FK Partizan 1-2 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Partizan vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Partizan win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split FK Partizan 42%, draw 24%, Backa Topola 33%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FK Partizan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Partizan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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