Progreso 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.53
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
36%
-1.6pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.0pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo) EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.62/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/1.06
+39% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
259 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2021 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 0-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
04.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 1-3 HT 0-2 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
30.01.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-4 HT 0-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) URU
08.03.2020 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 1-1 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
2-1
AWAY Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso squeezed past Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Progreso made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Progreso had 55% of the ball to Liverpool FC (Montevideo)'s 45%, shots finished 16-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Progreso and 2.00 for Liverpool FC (Montevideo).

What was the final score of Progreso vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Progreso 2-1 Liverpool FC (Montevideo) in the Uruguay - Premier League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Liverpool FC (Montevideo)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool FC (Montevideo) win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progreso 34%, draw 28%, Liverpool FC (Montevideo) 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Liverpool FC (Montevideo)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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