Sumqayıt 2-2 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.59
Over
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.99
No
53%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
43%
4-5
18%
6+
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.2pp
53%
BTTS No
54%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 43%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -11%
1.12/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/0.79
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +42%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
329 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
21.02.2025 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
08.12.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-0 HT 2-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
28.09.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
07.04.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 0-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
09.02.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-1 HT 1-1 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERK
04.02.2024 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-1 HT 2-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sumqayıt and Neftçi PFK couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 28% / 37%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sumqayıt had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sumqayıt and 0.83 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Sumqayıt 2-2 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 35%, draw 28%, Neftçi PFK 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →