Göztepe 4-1 Başakşehir FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 28 Apr 2025

📅28/04/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.75
Over Pick
52%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
26%
2.9
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
24%
3.86
6+
10%
17.3
Value flag · 4-5 at 3.86 — our 24% vs market 20.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.32
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.35
X/1
17%
5.11
X/2
6%
6.4
X/X
11%
4.41
2/1
11%
28.0
2/2
14%
4.68
2/X
7%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
42%
+7.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.3pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
53%
-5.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
47%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Göztepe EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -4%
1.73/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.38
+6% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / +4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 80%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.9
20.0 Crosses 15.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Göztepe
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Başakşehir FK
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.94 xG 1.52
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
278 Passes 448
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 32
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 4-1 HT 4-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
20.12.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 3-1 HT 3-0 Göztepe Göztepe TÜK
22.01.2022 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-2 HT 0-1 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
12.09.2021 Göztepe Göztepe 2-1 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
14.02.2021 Göztepe Göztepe 2-1 HT 1-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
03.10.2020 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Göztepe Göztepe TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Göztepe
4-1
AWAY Başakşehir FK
3.32 xG 0.93
43% Ball Possession 57%
29 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 4
193 Passes 287
68% Pass Accuracy 78%
44 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Göztepe vs Başakşehir FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Göztepe swept aside Başakşehir FK 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Göztepe as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Göztepe had 43% of the ball to Başakşehir FK's 57%, shots finished 29-12, expected goals 3.32 to 0.93.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Göztepe had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Göztepe and 1.67 for Başakşehir FK.

What was the final score of Göztepe vs Başakşehir FK?

Göztepe 4-1 Başakşehir FK in the Turkey - Super League on 28/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Göztepe vs Başakşehir FK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Göztepe win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Göztepe 49%, draw 25%, Başakşehir FK 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Göztepe), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Göztepe) ✓ Over 2.5
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