Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 28 Apr 2026

Velez Sarsfield
2-2 HT 2-1
Union Santa Fe
📅28/04/2026 · 🕒00:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2026

Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.82
6+ Goals
8%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.17
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
14%
4.69
X/2
10%
6.6
X/X
16%
3.74
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
11%
5.35
2/X
6%
14.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.6pp
26%
Away Win
28%
-1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.3pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Velez Sarsfield v Union Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 31%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.07/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.29
+8% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
280 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
20.1 Crosses 18.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2

Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Union Santa Fe
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.67 xG 0.85
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
358 Passes 240
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.12.2024 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
24.07.2023 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
07.08.2022 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 2-1 HT 0-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
07.09.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-0 HT 0-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
05.04.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 4-1 HT 2-1 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
10.03.2020 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 0-3 HT 0-2 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ

Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
2-2
AWAY Union Santa Fe
2.33 xG 1.29
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
358 Passes 232
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 14
13 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield and Union Santa Fe shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Velez Sarsfield at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 57% of the ball to Union Santa Fe's 43%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 2.33 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Velez Sarsfield had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 0.67 for Union Santa Fe.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?

Velez Sarsfield 2-2 Union Santa Fe in the Argentina - Premier League on 28/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Union Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 44%, draw 29%, Union Santa Fe 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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