Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jun 2024

📅28/06/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.03
6+ Goals
9%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.53
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.9
X/1
15%
4.18
X/2
9%
8.16
X/X
16%
4.34
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
12%
6.52
2/X
8%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
50%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.8pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.5pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.43/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/0.77
+0% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +41%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 77%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
21.2 Crosses 19.9
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Vitoria
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.81 xG 0.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
336 Passes 235
78% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2018 Fluminense Fluminense 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
06.05.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 1-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
10.09.2017 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
04.06.2017 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
29.10.2016 Fluminense Fluminense 2-2 HT 2-1 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
11.07.2016 Vitoria Vitoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
0-1
AWAY Vitoria
0.34 xG 0.46
64% Ball Possession 36%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 2
575 Passes 291
89% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria edged past Fluminense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fluminense at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fluminense had 64% of the ball to Vitoria's 36%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.34 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Fluminense and 1.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Vitoria?

Fluminense 0-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 42%, draw 29%, Vitoria 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Fluminense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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