Sao Paulo 2-1 Criciuma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 28 Jun 2024

Sao Paulo
2-1 HT 2-0
Criciuma
📅28/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Criciuma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
20%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 29% vs market 27.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.97
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.0
X/1
20%
3.58
X/2
7%
11.55
X/X
18%
5.02
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
6%
9.86
2/X
5%
18.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.9pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.2pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Criciuma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Criciuma EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
1.69/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/1.77
-3% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +127% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
378 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 76%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
24.8 Crosses 10.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 0.7

Sao Paulo vs Criciuma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Criciuma
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
383 Passes 276
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
The Meetings
02.11.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 1-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
05.09.2014 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 2-0 HT 2-0 Criciuma Criciuma CSA
29.08.2014 Criciuma Criciuma 2-1 HT 2-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo CSA
03.08.2014 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 0-0 Criciuma Criciuma BR1
01.12.2013 Criciuma Criciuma 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
06.09.2013 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-2 HT 0-2 Criciuma Criciuma BR1

Sao Paulo 2-1 Criciuma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-1
AWAY Criciuma
0.47 xG 1.48
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
535 Passes 289
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 14
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Criciuma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo edged past Criciuma 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 62% of the ball to Criciuma's 38%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.47 to 1.48 — the balance of chances actually favoured Criciuma.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Criciuma led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.17 for Criciuma.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?

Sao Paulo 2-1 Criciuma in the Brazil - Serie A on 28/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Criciuma?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 30%, Criciuma 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR1 More Brazil - Serie A
28 Jun 2024
01:00 Fluminense vs Vitoria Analysis →