Benfica 1-4 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Women's World Cup, 28 Jun 2025

Benfica
1-4 HT 0-0
Chelsea
📅28/06/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Women's World Cup – 2025

Benfica vs Chelsea Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
47%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.0
Over 2.5
48%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.77
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
3.14
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.77 — our 29% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.28
1/2
4%
24.2
1/X
8%
12.75
X/1
16%
7.66
X/2 EV+ ✓
22%
5.16
X/X
9%
4.86
2/1
5%
33.5
2/2
21%
2.82
2/X
7%
12.0
Value flag · X/2 at 5.16 — our 22% vs market 15.3%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.9pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.6pp
47%
Away Win
45%
+1.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
46%
+5.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
54%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-7.7pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Chelsea — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 49%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -62% / -62%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -72%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
327 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 394 · 81%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
– Crosses 11.0
– Yellow Cards 3.0

Benfica vs Chelsea Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
0W-0D-4L
AWAY Chelsea
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
24 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
The Meetings
15.05.2013 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea AVL
04.04.2012 Chelsea Chelsea 2-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica ŞMP
27.03.2012 Benfica Benfica 0-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea ŞMP
17.07.2005 Benfica Benfica 0-1 HT 0-1 Chelsea Chelsea HAZ

Benfica 1-4 Chelsea — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-4
AWAY Chelsea
1.22 xG 2.71
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 22
5 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 10
379 Passes 723
84% Pass Accuracy 92%
17 Box Touches 46
8 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea cruised past Benfica 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Benfica had 36% of the ball to Chelsea's 64%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 1.22 to 2.71.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Chelsea led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Benfica and 1.50 for Chelsea.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Chelsea?

Benfica 1-4 Chelsea in the Women's World Cup on 28/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Benfica 29%, draw 24%, Chelsea 47%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✗ Under 2.5
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