Nublense 1-2 U. Catolica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Chile - Premier League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.7pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.9pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nublense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY U. Catolica EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +19%
1.36/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.38
+8% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 73%
25.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
17.5 Crosses 15.3
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nublense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY U. Catolica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
252 Passes 297
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.02.2024 U. Catolica 0-1 HT 0-0 Nublense Nublense ŞİL
27.08.2023 U. Catolica 2-1 HT 1-0 Nublense Nublense ŞİL
04.03.2023 Nublense Nublense 1-2 HT 1-0 U. Catolica ŞİL
08.10.2022 U. Catolica 2-2 HT 2-0 Nublense Nublense ŞİL
09.05.2022 Nublense Nublense 4-0 HT 3-0 U. Catolica ŞİL
19.11.2021 U. Catolica 1-1 HT 0-0 Nublense Nublense ŞİLİSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nublense
1-2
AWAY U. Catolica
0.34 xG 1.20
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
217 Passes 284
67% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nublense vs U. Catolica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

U. Catolica squeezed past Nublense 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nublense at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nublense had 46% of the ball to U. Catolica's 54%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.34 to 1.20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Nublense and 1.17 for U. Catolica.

What was the final score of Nublense vs U. Catolica?

Nublense 1-2 U. Catolica in the Chile - Premier League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nublense vs U. Catolica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nublense win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nublense 41%, draw 27%, U. Catolica 31%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Nublense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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