Guarani FC 1-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.89
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
29%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.45
Over 2.5
43%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.33
No
57%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
19%
6.14
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
49%
-5.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.1pp
30%
Away Win
22%
+7.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
65%
-8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
35%
+8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
39%
+3.9pp
57%
BTTS No
61%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.42/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.52
+1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 76%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
24.0 Crosses 16.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guarani FC
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Brusque
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.26 xG 1.09
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
316 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.07.2022 Guarani FC Guarani FC 1-1 HT 0-0 Brusque Brusque BR2
09.04.2022 Brusque Brusque 1-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
02.10.2021 Brusque Brusque 2-0 HT 0-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
04.07.2021 Guarani FC Guarani FC 4-1 HT 3-1 Brusque Brusque BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guarani FC
1-0
AWAY Brusque
1.87 xG 0.22
43% Ball Possession 57%
28 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
253 Passes 358
76% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 10
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guarani FC vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guarani FC squeezed past Brusque 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guarani FC as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Guarani FC had 43% of the ball to Brusque's 57%, shots finished 28-5, expected goals 1.87 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Guarani FC's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Brusque led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Guarani FC and 1.25 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Guarani FC vs Brusque?

Guarani FC 1-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guarani FC vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guarani FC win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Guarani FC 44%, draw 27%, Brusque 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guarani FC), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Guarani FC) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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28 Jul 2024
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