Sport Recife 3-1 Ponte Preta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
21%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
67%
1.74
Over 2.5
33%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.16
No
65%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
40%
2.85
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
19.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.85 — our 40% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
19%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.1pp
30%
Draw
24%
+6.0pp
21%
Away Win
15%
+6.0pp
67%
Under 2.5
54%
+13.3pp
33%
Over 2.5
46%
-13.3pp
35%
BTTS Yes
42%
-7.3pp
65%
BTTS No
58%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sport Recife EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 18%
+2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.30/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.20
+31% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +28%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
21.8 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sport Recife
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.59 xG 1.19
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
360 Passes 243
81% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 3
10.10.2023 Sport Recife Sport Recife 3-3 HT 1-3 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
11.06.2023 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-1 HT 1-1 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
08.09.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 1-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
03.06.2022 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.11.2019 Sport Recife Sport Recife 2-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
25.08.2019 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-2 HT 0-0 Sport Recife Sport Recife BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sport Recife
3-1
AWAY Ponte Preta
1.15 xG 0.95
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
358 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 72%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sport Recife got the better of Ponte Preta 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sport Recife as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (67%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sport Recife had 59% of the ball to Ponte Preta's 41%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.15 to 0.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sport Recife had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sport Recife and 1.50 for Ponte Preta.

What was the final score of Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?

Sport Recife 3-1 Ponte Preta in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sport Recife win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Sport Recife 49%, draw 30%, Ponte Preta 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sport Recife) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sport Recife) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
28 Jul 2024
22:00 Guarani FC vs Brusque Analysis →