Botev Plovdiv 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.9
No
52%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.1pp
31%
Away Win
21%
+9.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.0pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 24%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
1.59/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/0.97
+3% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
394 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
16.07.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
19.03.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-1 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
2-2
AWAY Lokomotiv Plovdiv
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv and Lokomotiv Plovdiv shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Botev Plovdiv at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 55% of the ball to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 45%, shots finished 11-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 0.67 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Botev Plovdiv 2-2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 45%, draw 24%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 31%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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