Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 2nd Division, 28 Jul 2024

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
3-1 HT 1-1
Podbeskidzie Bielsko
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Poland - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.16
6+ Goals
8%
10.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 30% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
16%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
39%
-1.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
37%
Away Win
34%
+2.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki v Podbeskidzie Bielsko — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Podbeskidzie Bielsko EU Bookmakers 38%
-35% / -35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
3-1
AWAY Podbeskidzie Bielsko
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki saw off Podbeskidzie Bielsko 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 37%) promised a tight game; Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki had 50% of the ball to Podbeskidzie Bielsko's 50%, shots finished 15-8.

What was the final score of Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko?

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-1 Podbeskidzie Bielsko in the Poland - 2nd Division on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki vs Podbeskidzie Bielsko?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 38%, draw 26%, Podbeskidzie Bielsko 37%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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