Khimki 1-3 Spartak Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Jul 2024

Khimki
1-3 HT 0-0
Spartak Moskova
📅28/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Khimki vs Spartak Moskova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.46
6+ Goals
9%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 29% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.58
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
5%
13.2
X/1
7%
6.53
X/2
16%
4.87
X/X
13%
4.68
2/1
9%
32.5
2/2
23%
3.04
2/X
9%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-3.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.2pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Khimki v Spartak Moskova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Khimki EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Moskova EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -31%
0.87/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.37
-40% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -19%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
291 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.5
14.0 Crosses 21.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5

Khimki vs Spartak Moskova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Khimki
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Spartak Moskova
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.97 xG 2.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
240 Passes 420
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 34
13 Crosses 17
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.05.2023 Khimki Khimki 1-1 HT 1-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
23.10.2022 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 5-0 HT 2-0 Khimki Khimki RUS
21.05.2022 Khimki Khimki 2-1 HT 2-1 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS
11.09.2021 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 3-1 HT 1-0 Khimki Khimki RUS
10.05.2021 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova 2-1 HT 0-1 Khimki Khimki RUS
17.10.2020 Khimki Khimki 2-3 HT 0-0 Spartak Moskova Spartak Moskova RUS

Khimki 1-3 Spartak Moskova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Khimki
1-3
AWAY Spartak Moskova
0.41 xG 3.77
40% Ball Possession 60%
5 Total Shots 27
2 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 8
243 Passes 432
75% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 56
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Khimki vs Spartak Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Moskova beat Khimki 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Spartak Moskova as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Khimki had 40% of the ball to Spartak Moskova's 60%, shots finished 5-27, expected goals 0.41 to 3.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Spartak Moskova led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Khimki and 2.50 for Spartak Moskova.

What was the final score of Khimki vs Spartak Moskova?

Khimki 1-3 Spartak Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Khimki vs Spartak Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Spartak Moskova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Khimki 28%, draw 27%, Spartak Moskova 45%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Spartak Moskova), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Spartak Moskova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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