FK Orenburg 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 28 Jul 2024

📅28/07/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.15
Over 2.5
51%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.56
No
51%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
23%
4.17
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
21%
3.04
6+ Goals
13%
9.48
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.17 — our 23% vs market 19.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
3.1
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.7
X/1
10%
5.18
X/2
12%
6.37
X/X
9%
5.17
2/1
5%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.13
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
43%
+6.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
57%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.7pp
51%
BTTS No
40%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -4%
1.71/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.38
+5% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
355 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 75%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
26.1 Crosses 13.4
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FK Orenburg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.19 xG 1.89
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
316 Passes 210
77% Pass Accuracy 69%
23 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 HT 0-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUSK
26.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
20.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 4-0 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
04.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
19.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
09.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FK Orenburg
0-0
AWAY FC Akhmat Grozny
1.42 xG 0.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
24 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
318 Passes 246
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
33 Box Touches 22
32 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg and FC Akhmat Grozny fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was FK Orenburg at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, FK Orenburg had 55% of the ball to FC Akhmat Grozny's 45%, shots finished 24-10, expected goals 1.42 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FK Orenburg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FK Orenburg and 1.83 for FC Akhmat Grozny.

What was the final score of FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

FK Orenburg 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny in the Russia - Premier League on 28/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FK Orenburg vs FC Akhmat Grozny?

Before kick-off our model rated a FK Orenburg win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split FK Orenburg 44%, draw 24%, FC Akhmat Grozny 32%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (FK Orenburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FK Orenburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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