AC Horsens 2-0 Hobro IK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
33%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.1
Over 2.5
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
21%
4.0
2-3 Goals
47%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.11
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 21% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.29
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.7
X/1
9%
4.12
X/2
8%
8.53
X/X
7%
5.65
2/1
6%
21.45
2/2 EV+ ✗
18%
6.19
2/X
10%
15.15
Value flag · 2/2 at 6.19 — our 18% vs market 12.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
53%
-9.6pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.6pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+8.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Hobro IK EU Bookmakers 27%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.79/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.18
-36% / +67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 74%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.1
26.0 Crosses 18.7
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AC Horsens
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Hobro IK
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.35 xG 1.24
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
331 Passes 349
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-1 HT 0-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
15.09.2023 Hobro IK Hobro IK 0-1 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
28.11.2021 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-1 HT 1-0 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN1
18.09.2021 Hobro IK Hobro IK 0-3 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
08.07.2020 AC Horsens AC Horsens 3-2 HT 1-2 Hobro IK Hobro IK DAN
13.06.2020 Hobro IK Hobro IK 1-1 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AC Horsens
2-0
AWAY Hobro IK
2.90 xG 0.51
56% Ball Possession 44%
28 Total Shots 8
13 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 5
414 Passes 297
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
47 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 14
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AC Horsens vs Hobro IK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens saw off Hobro IK 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had AC Horsens as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AC Horsens had 56% of the ball to Hobro IK's 44%, shots finished 28-8, expected goals 2.90 to 0.51.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for AC Horsens and 0.83 for Hobro IK.

What was the final score of AC Horsens vs Hobro IK?

AC Horsens 2-0 Hobro IK in the Denmark 1st Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AC Horsens vs Hobro IK?

Before kick-off our model rated a AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split AC Horsens 43%, draw 24%, Hobro IK 32%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Horsens), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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